13
Tamzan
3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 75
Leicester · Fireworks Festival 7th November 2026 - Book Now Handicap · 1m 53y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
80%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Sandown | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Leicester | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Beverley | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Windsor | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 06/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |