11
Tortured Soul
6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 71
Leicester · Fireworks Festival 7th November 2026 - Book Now Handicap · 1m 53y
#13
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kempton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 26/01/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 04/03/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 25/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 04/09/2026 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |