7
Trio
3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 78
Leicester · Fireworks Festival 7th November 2026 - Book Now Handicap · 1m 53y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sandown | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -9.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 45% | -0.33 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |