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Wesam

5yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 81

Leicester · Fireworks Festival 7th November 2026 - Book Now Handicap · 1m 53y

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

All-weather novice winner at Newcastle last autumn. No impact in 2 turf handicaps at Meydan over the winter but returns to Britain with an unexposed profile. One to note in the betting.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 26/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 1m5y Std 13426/0955 @ Kempton 10/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m Sta 14010/105C0 @ Meydan 12/12/2025 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f Gd 12512/12C?C0 @ Meydan 09/01/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f110y Gd 1299/01C?projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-01-09Meydan?14th14th0
2025-12-12Meydan?14th14th0
2025-10-10Kempton53rd4th−1
2025-09-26Newcastle51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0910/1012/129/01
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%

Delivery trend -7.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
10/10/20253rd6/492%80%-0.12
12/12/202514th4/179%7%-0.72
09/01/202614th18/15%7%+0.02