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11

Amathus

9yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 53

Leicester · Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#12

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Typically outpaced/suited by the brisk pace when scrambling home (had to survive stewards enquiry) in a 7f Salisbury handicap in July. Two poor runs have followed and probably best to look elsewhere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Brighton 16/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 56 · 6f210y Goo 131 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 56 par16/106OR 566 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 54 · 1m Gd 150 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 54 par4/056OR 546 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m Goo 125 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Brighton 22/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 53 · 6f210y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 53 par22/066OR 536 @ Chepstow 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 52 · 1m14y GF 132 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 52 · 6f213y Goo 153 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 52 par21/076OR 525 @ Salisbury 13/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 54 · 1m Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m Goo 129 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 54 par2/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 12th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath610th10th0
2026-08-13Salisbury55th4th+1
2026-07-21Salisbury61st1st0
2026-07-08Chepstow64th4th0
2026-06-22Brighton68th8th0
2026-05-22Bath69th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1022/0521/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 9-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/202513th28/10%8%+0.08
05/04/20269th20/10%38%+0.38
04/05/20262nd16/116%90%+0.74
22/05/20269th25/10%20%+0.20
22/06/20268th8/158%13%-0.45
08/07/20264th20/10%57%+0.57
21/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
13/08/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
02/09/202610th50/10%10%+0.10