10
Captain Corelli
9yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 55
Leicester · Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap · 7f
#14
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength54%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Southwell | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Redcar | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Beverley | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Pontefract | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-07-18 | Haydock | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 9-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 24/06/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 18/07/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 24/08/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 16/09/2025 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 20/11/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 09/09/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |