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13

Heer's Sadie

8yo Mare · 9-3 · OR 51

Leicester · Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded her fourth course success in 10-runner classified event at Yarmouth (1m, firm) last month. Well beaten at Brighton since. Yard no stranger to success in this contest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Yarmouth 24/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 50 · 7f3y Goo 125 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 50 par24/086OR 506 @ Leicester 22/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 49 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 49 par6 @ Brighton 07/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 48 · 6f210y Goo 124 · beat its mark07/10/2025 · OR 48 par7/106OR 486 @ Lingfield 19/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 47 · 7f135y Goo 127 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 45 · 1m3y Sft 135 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 45 par10/066OR 456 @ Yarmouth 08/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 48 · 1m3y GF 130 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Yarmouth 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 46 · 1m3y GF 126 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 46 par28/076OR 466 @ Yarmouth 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 46 · 1m3y GF 135 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Brighton 24/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 51 · 7f216y Goo 131 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 51 par24/086OR 51projClass-projected finish: 9th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Brighton68th8th0
2026-08-14Yarmouth61st1st0
2026-07-28Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-07-08Yarmouth65th5th0
2026-06-10Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-05-19Lingfield66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0819/0528/0724/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 6-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength22%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/08/20256th28/10%38%+0.38
22/09/20254th10/147%67%+0.19
07/10/20255th14/126%64%+0.37
19/05/20266th22/10%50%+0.50
10/06/20262nd11/142%89%+0.47
08/07/20265th15/261%20%-0.41
28/07/20262nd12/137%75%+0.38
14/08/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
24/08/20268th14/126%13%-0.14