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9

Midnight's Dream

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 56

Leicester · Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Latest Lingfield third was the fourth time he's placed at 0-60 level on his last 5 starts. Likely to be in the mix again in first-time cheekpieces.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 69 · 1m Sta 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 69 par4/034OR 695 @ Kempton 18/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 67 · 1m Sta 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/03/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 31/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 64 · 7f36y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/03/2026 · OR 64 par31/035OR 646 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 60 · 7f213y Goo 135 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Yarmouth 02/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 59 · 1m3y GF 139 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 59 par2/076OR 596 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 58 · 7f36y Std 134 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 58 · 7f36y Std 139 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 58 par30/076OR 586 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Lingfield 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 57 · 7f1y Std 133 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 57 par10/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-08-13Lingfield65th5th0
2026-07-30Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-07-14Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-07-02Yarmouth63rd3rd0
2026-06-14Doncaster66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0314/0630/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/03/202610th150/10%10%+0.10
18/03/202612th66/10%8%+0.08
31/03/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
14/06/20266th6/168%71%+0.02
02/07/20263rd3/184%67%-0.18
14/07/20262nd10/147%89%+0.42
30/07/20263rd13/266%78%+0.12
13/08/20265th17/255%64%+0.08
10/09/20263rd10/382%78%-0.05