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4

Sir David

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 57

Leicester · Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Tumbled down the weights and back on the scoreboard when landing 13-runner handicap at Beverley (7f, good) last month. Never involved over 7f at Musselburgh since, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Nottingham 08/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 65 · 1m75y Goo 135 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 65 par8/046OR 656 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 64 · 7f6y Goo 134 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Beverley 12/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 62 · 1m100y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 62 par12/055OR 626 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 59 · 6f195y Goo 129 · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 56 · 6f195y Sft 131 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 56 par8/066OR 566 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 57 · 7f96y Goo 127 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 56 · 7f6y GF 134 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 56 par1/086OR 566 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 54 · 7f75y Goo 135 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 7f15y Gd 127 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 57 par25/086OR 57projClass-projected finish: 6th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Musselburgh68th8th0
2026-08-12Beverley61st1st0
2026-08-01Doncaster63rd3rd0
2026-07-03Beverley69th9th0
2026-06-08Carlisle62nd2nd0
2026-05-29Carlisle68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0429/051/0825/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength46%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/04/202612th20/10%21%+0.21
24/04/202613th33/10%20%+0.20
12/05/202612th22/10%8%+0.08
29/05/20268th11/271%13%-0.59
08/06/20262nd11/142%89%+0.47
03/07/20269th16/116%20%+0.04
01/08/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09
12/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
25/08/20268th12/137%22%-0.15