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5

Violet Goldsmith

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 60

Leicester · Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

70%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark at Chepstow (1m, good to firm) in July and has backed it up with a pair of good runner-up efforts. Has cheekpieces refitted. Brings a much more positive profile than most.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS19/0922 @ Salisbury 02/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 6f213y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kempton 29/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 7f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS29/1046 @ Southwell 09/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m13y Std 135 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 53 · 1m14y Goo 130 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 53 par29/056OR 536 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 53 · 1m14y Goo 134 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 53 par5 @ Salisbury 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 56 · 1m Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 56 par21/085OR 566 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 57 · 1m Sta 127 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 57 par9/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 1st of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kempton62nd2nd0
2026-08-21Salisbury52nd1st+1
2026-07-03Chepstow61st1st0
2026-05-29Chepstow62nd2nd0
2026-04-09Southwell611th11th0
2025-10-29Kempton47th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/099/0421/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20257th16/116%0%-0.16
02/10/20258th80/10%13%+0.13
29/10/20257th250/10%33%+0.33
09/04/202611th6/168%9%-0.59
29/05/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
03/07/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
21/08/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03
09/09/20262nd7/163%92%+0.29