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17

Brains

10yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 53

Listowel · GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Losing run is mounting up but not discredited on his last 2 starts, third of 10 in handicap at Laytown (7f) 11 days ago. Regular blinkers refitted, though he's back up in grade here. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA58 @ Dundalk 09/01/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m Std 140 · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 58 par9/0158OR 58BHA56 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 56 · 7f Yie 138 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 56 parBHA55 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 55 · 7f111y Gd 138 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 55 par11/0555OR 55BHA59 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 59 · 1m Yie 142 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 59 · 7f94y Goo 141 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 59 par30/0659OR 59BHA58 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 58 · 7f Goo 140 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 58 parBHA56 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 56 · 7f42y Goo 139 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 56 par6/0856OR 56BHA56 @ Leopardstown 20/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 56 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 56 parBHA53 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 53 · 7f Std 150 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 53 par10/0953OR 53projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10LaytownBHA533rd3rd0
2026-08-20LeopardstownBHA566th6th0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA565th5th0
2026-07-25Gowran ParkBHA587th7th0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA595th5th0
2026-06-01Gowran ParkBHA596th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/011/066/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/01/202614th7/163%0%-0.63
15/04/20264th9/153%73%+0.20
11/05/20262nd10/382%92%+0.10
01/06/20266th5/174%67%-0.07
30/06/20265th6/168%71%+0.03
25/07/20267th11/142%60%+0.18
06/08/20265th12/137%75%+0.38
20/08/20266th12/137%62%+0.25
10/09/20263rd13/266%78%+0.12