15
Buttermere Ridge
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 58
Listowel · GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap · 1m
#16
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 9.5)
Highest class: BHA65
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Gowran Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA65 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | BHA71 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Punchestown | BHA71 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Galway | BHA75 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/10/2025 | 13th | 150/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 27/10/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 18/06/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.52 |
| 01/08/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/08/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |