5
Faoladh
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 69
Listowel · GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | BHA69 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Laytown | BHA69 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA68 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA68 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | BHA71 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | BHA72 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1871% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.12 |
| 08/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 16/07/2026 | 13th | 7/1 | 63% | 8% | -0.55 |
| 28/07/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 18/09/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 23% | -0.19 |