IvyArcIvyArc
13

Green Kite

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 62

Listowel · GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap · 1m

#13

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran up to his best when second at Leopardstown (7f) in June and soon left behind a lesser effort when keeping on for fourth in 22-runner contest at Cork 12 days ago. Can make his presence felt back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: BHA60
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 04/06/2025 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR - · 6f63y Goo 1344/06C8C8 @ Listowel 22/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 1m Hvy 134C8 @ Killarney 06/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m30y Sft 1346/10C8BHA69 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 69 · 7f Hvy 139 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 69 parBHA66 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 66 · 1m50y Yie 136 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 66 par25/0466OR 66C7 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 65 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 65 parBHA61 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 61 · 7f35y Sft 131 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 61 par11/0661OR 61BHA64 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 64 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 64 parBHA60 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 22 · OR 60 · 7f Goo 142 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 60 par9/0960OR 60projClass-projected finish: 5th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA604th4th0
2026-07-08FairyhouseBHA6411th11th0
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA612nd2nd0
2026-05-20Gowran Park?4th4th0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA668th8th0
2025-10-20Gowran ParkBHA6913th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0620/1011/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength97%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/202514th66/10%24%+0.24
22/09/20259th500/10%43%+0.43
06/10/20252nd25/10%86%+0.86
20/10/202513th16/116%20%+0.04
25/04/20268th25/10%50%+0.50
20/05/20264th20/10%50%+0.50
11/06/20262nd12/137%91%+0.54
08/07/202611th11/142%29%-0.14
09/09/20264th15/261%86%+0.25