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16

Little Miss P

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 56

Listowel · GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap · 1m

#18

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#18

★★ Timeform

Commentary

In first-time visor, never-nearer seventh of 18 at Fairyhouse (7f) in July but has gone backwards from that effort since, making first run since leaving W. McCreery when well beaten at Cork (1m) 12 days ago. Now goes in cheekpieces.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 8.1)

Highest class: BHA61
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 02/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m Goo 1292/06C8C8 @ Limerick 11/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 1m Gd 129C8 @ Killarney 14/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 79 · 1m3f73y Yie 129 · below its mark14/07/2025 · OR 79 par14/07C8OR 79C8 @ Galway 02/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 77 · 1m73y Goo 129 · below its mark02/08/2025 · OR 77 parBHA73 @ Leopardstown 12/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 73 · 1m Goo 133 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 73 par12/0473OR 73BHA72 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m2f63y Yie 132 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 72 parBHA67 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 67 · 7f Goo 140 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 67 par1/0767OR 67BHA65 @ Killarney 14/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 65 · 1m30y Gd 135 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 65 parBHA61 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 17th of 18 · OR 61 · 1m Goo 132 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 61 par9/0961OR 61projClass-projected finish: 17th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA6117th17th0
2026-07-14KillarneyBHA658th8th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA677th7th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA7211th11th0
2026-04-12LeopardstownBHA7314th14th0
2025-08-02Galway?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/062/081/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 180% of fieldRange 10-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength2%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20253rd50/10%83%+0.83
11/06/20255th14/126%73%+0.47
14/07/20255th6/168%43%-0.26
02/08/20255th11/271%73%+0.02
12/04/202614th12/137%19%-0.18
18/05/202611th20/10%0%0.00
01/07/20267th25/10%65%+0.65
14/07/20268th14/126%46%+0.20
09/09/202617th33/10%6%+0.06