3
Local Lad
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 70
Listowel · GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | BHA76 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Galway | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Roscommon | BHA87 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Fairyhouse | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Kempton | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 14-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2024 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/09/2024 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 12/10/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 29/03/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 06/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 27/10/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 05/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 19/04/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |