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12

Storm Averted

5yo Mare · 9-7 · OR 63

Listowel · GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful over 7f at the Galway Festival last year when trained by Michael Mulvany. Showed a bit more than on first 2 starts for this yard when 3½ lengths ninth of 18 at Cork (1m) 12 days ago and is now 3 lb below her winning mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: BHA65
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Gowran Park 16/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 72 · 1m Sft 132 · below its mark16/04/2025 · OR 72 par16/0472OR 72BHA66 @ Galway 29/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 66 · 1m123y Yie 136 · beat its mark29/07/2025 · OR 66 parBHA66 @ Galway 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 66 · 7f Yie 136 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 66 par2/0866OR 66BHA73 @ Bellewstown 02/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 73 · 7f195y Sft 133 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 73 parBHA73 @ Navan 08/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m40y Yie 129 · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 73 par8/1073OR 73BHA72 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 72 · 6f Hvy 133 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 72 parBHA71 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 71 · 1m1f163y Yie 131 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 71 par22/0671OR 71BHA70 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 70 · 7f Yie 140 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 70 parBHA65 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 65 · 1m Goo 136 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 65 par9/0965OR 65projClass-projected finish: 15th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA659th9th0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA7013th13th0
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA719th9th0
2025-10-21CurraghBHA724th4th0
2025-10-08NavanBHA737th7th0
2025-10-02BellewstownBHA738th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/042/1022/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1835% of fieldRange 2-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20257th25/10%14%+0.14
29/07/20254th16/116%82%+0.67
02/08/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
02/10/20258th15/261%13%-0.48
08/10/20257th12/137%25%-0.12
21/10/20254th20/10%81%+0.81
22/06/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
01/08/202613th9/153%0%-0.53
09/09/20269th33/10%53%+0.53