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4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 61

Listowel · GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In first-time cheekpieces, got off the mark in comfortable fashion at Bellewstown last month and backed that up when fourth of 18 at Cork 12 days ago. Headgear now left off but she enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 20/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f Goo 12920/05C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 06/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 7f Gd 129BHA62 @ Fairyhouse 22/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 62 · 7f Yie 129 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 62 par22/0962OR 62BHA63 @ Dundalk 10/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 63 · 7f Std 132 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 63 parBHA63 @ Dundalk 24/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 63 · 7f Std 131 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 63 par24/1063OR 63BHA62 @ Dundalk 12/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 62 · 7f Std 131 · below its mark12/11/2025 · OR 62 parBHA59 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 59 · 5f180y Yie 142 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 59 par16/0559OR 59BHA56 @ Bellewstown 25/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 56 · 7f195y Goo 139 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 56 parBHA61 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 61 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 61 par9/0961OR 61projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA614th4th0
2026-08-25BellewstownBHA561st1st0
2026-05-16NavanBHA598th8th0
2025-11-12DundalkBHA6213th13th0
2025-10-24DundalkBHA635th5th0
2025-10-10DundalkBHA635th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0510/1016/059/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength79%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20253rd80/10%60%+0.60
06/06/20254th50/10%80%+0.80
22/09/20254th5/174%82%+0.09
10/10/20255th4/179%69%-0.10
24/10/20255th9/153%69%+0.17
12/11/202513th10/147%8%-0.40
16/05/20268th8/158%56%-0.02
25/08/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
09/09/20264th10/147%82%+0.35