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3

Casamorati

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 72

Listowel · Tote, Never Beaten By SP Maiden · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stepped up markedly on previous efforts when a neck second of 18 in a handicap at the Galway Festival (8.4f) and returned to form when third in a minor event at that same C&D 13 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: BHA70
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 09/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f130y Sft 1349/04C8C8 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f50y Yie 13425/04C8C8 @ Gowran Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 1m Goo 1345/05C8BHA71 @ Killarney 13/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 71 · 1m20y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 71 par13/0771OR 71BHA70 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 70 · 1m98y Yie 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 70 par31/0770OR 70BHA74 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 74 · 1m30y Gd 139 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 74 par21/0874OR 74BHA72 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 72 · 1m98y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 72 par8/0972OR 72projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08GalwayBHA723rd2nd+1
2026-08-21KillarneyBHA746th5th+1
2026-07-31GalwayBHA702nd1st+1
2026-07-13KillarneyBHA718th7th+1
2026-05-05Gowran Park?9th9th0
2026-04-25Limerick?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0413/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/04/20266th11/271%29%-0.42
25/04/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
05/05/20269th33/10%47%+0.47
13/07/20268th33/10%0%0.00
31/07/20262nd28/10%94%+0.94
21/08/20266th5/174%38%-0.36
08/09/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02