16

Miss Ivor

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 44

Listowel · Tote, Never Beaten By SP Maiden · 1m

#16

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden after 8 Flat runs. Eighth of 21 in handicap (66/1) at Navan (1¼m, good) 16 days ago. Back down in trip. Easy to oppose.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move2
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 10.0)

Highest class: BHA46
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 5f205y Yie 12818/09C8C8 @ Naas 12/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 5f205y Yie 128C8 @ Dundalk 07/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 7f Std 1287/11C8BHA58 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 58 · 7f111y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 58 parC8 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 56 · 1m4f Yie 127 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 56 par3/06C8OR 56BHA54 @ Gowran Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 54 · 7f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 54 parBHA51 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 51 · 1m Yie 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 51 par30/0851OR 51BHA46 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR 46 · 1m2f10y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 46 par5/0946OR 46projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA468th4th+3
2026-08-30CorkBHA5111th8th+3
2026-08-07Gowran ParkBHA5410th7th+3
2026-06-03Curragh?9th9th0
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA5812th9th+2
2025-11-07Dundalk?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0911/0530/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength38%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/202510th125/10%40%+0.40
12/10/20258th400/10%50%+0.50
07/11/202512th150/10%0%0.00
11/05/202612th28/10%15%+0.15
03/06/20269th300/10%0%0.00
07/08/202610th80/10%31%+0.31
30/08/202611th50/10%33%+0.33
05/09/20268th66/10%65%+0.65