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17

Tijuana

8yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 40

Listowel · Tote, Never Beaten By SP Maiden · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden after 11 Flat runs. 300/1, twelfth of 13 in maiden at Killarney (1m, good). Off 132 days. Tongue strap on for 1st time. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength71%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 11.1)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Listowel 22/09/2022 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR - · 1m Sft 13822/09C8BHA47 @ Dundalk 14/10/2022 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 47 · 7f Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/10/2022 · OR 47 parBHA47 @ Dundalk 04/11/2022 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 47 · 1m Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/11/2022 · OR 47 par4/1147OR 47C8 @ Cork 28/07/2023 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 40 · 6f Goo 139 · beat its mark28/07/2023 · OR 40 parC8 @ Tipperary 11/08/2023 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 47 · 5f Yie 137 · below its mark11/08/2023 · OR 47 par11/08C8OR 47BHA50 @ Cork 30/08/2023 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 50 · 7f Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2023 · OR 50 parBHA47 @ Cork 06/09/2023 · Pos 21st of 25 · OR 47 · 7f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2023 · OR 47 par6/0947OR 47BHA47 @ Galway 12/09/2023 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 47 · 7f24y Sft 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2023 · OR 47 parC8 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 34 · 1m31y Gd 135 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 34 par12/05C8OR 34projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-12Killarney?12th12th0
2023-09-12GalwayBHA477th3rd+3
2023-09-06CorkBHA4721th17th+3
2023-08-30CorkBHA5011th7th+3
2023-08-11Tipperary?11th11th0
2023-07-28Cork?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0928/076/0912/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1756% of fieldRange 11-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength16%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/202214th80/10%13%+0.13
14/10/20227th40/10%54%+0.54
04/11/202210th18/15%31%+0.26
28/07/20238th150/10%36%+0.36
11/08/202311th200/10%9%+0.09
30/08/202311th50/10%41%+0.41
06/09/202321st66/10%17%+0.17
12/09/20237th22/10%25%+0.25
12/05/202612th300/10%8%+0.08