IvyArcIvyArc
10

Cala Bonita

4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72

Listowel · Liam & Joan Healy Memorial Handicap · 1m 1f

#13

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved better than ever when winning 13-runner event at Galway (8.5f) in July, suited by strong pace. Not disgraced in a better race at Dundalk next time but ran one of this season's poorer races at Navan earlier in the month. Bounce back needed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA65 @ Dundalk 17/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 65 · 1m2f150y Std 131 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 65 par17/1065OR 65BHA72 @ Dundalk 26/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 72 · 1m4f Std 155 · below its mark26/11/2025 · OR 72 parBHA71 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 71 · 1m4f40y Yie 131 · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 71 par1/0671OR 71BHA71 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 71 · 1m2f40y Goo 131 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 71 parBHA71 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 71 · 1m5f Goo 131 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 71 par16/0771OR 71BHA69 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 69 · 1m123y Yie 139 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 69 parBHA69 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 69 · 1m98y Yie 119 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 69 par30/0769OR 69BHA76 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 76 · 1m2f150y Std 121 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 76 parBHA75 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 75 · 1m20y Goo 135 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 75 par2/0975OR 75projClass-projected finish: 16th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02NavanBHA7515th15th0
2026-08-15DundalkBHA769th9th0
2026-07-30GalwayBHA691st1st0
2026-07-28GalwayBHA697th7th0
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA714th4th0
2026-07-11NavanBHA718th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1011/0730/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 6-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
26/11/20258th5/174%46%-0.28
01/06/20264th28/10%80%+0.80
11/07/20268th7/163%30%-0.33
16/07/20264th11/142%40%-0.02
28/07/20267th28/10%63%+0.63
30/07/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
15/08/20269th12/137%38%+0.02
02/09/202615th25/10%0%0.00