6
Earls
9yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 74
Listowel · Liam & Joan Healy Memorial Handicap · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA77 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | BHA78 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | BHA78 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Killarney | BHA78 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA77 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | BHA76 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1876% of fieldRange 2-18 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 19th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 28/03/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 19/04/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 88% | +0.45 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 83% | +0.78 |
| 18/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 54% | -0.28 |
| 31/08/2026 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 9% | -0.46 |