11
Expound
7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 72
Listowel · Liam & Joan Healy Memorial Handicap · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Clonmel | BHA72 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Tramore | BHA74 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | BHA120 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | BHA77 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | BHA80 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dundalk | BHA67 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1853% of fieldRange 8-18 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 9th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 26/09/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 62% | -0.12 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 25/04/2026 | 14th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 16/09/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 63% | +0.20 |