17
Justenzia
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 69
Listowel · Liam & Joan Healy Memorial Handicap · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | BHA68 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | BHA70 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Ballinrobe | BHA72 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Leopardstown | BHA74 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA75 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | BHA72 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1888% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +7.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.27 |
| 01/06/2026 | 15th | 6/1 | 68% | 7% | -0.62 |
| 11/06/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 22/06/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 30/07/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 94% | +0.36 |