IvyArcIvyArc
13

Red Autumn

3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 75

Listowel · Liam & Joan Healy Memorial Handicap · 1m 1f

#12

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark in Bellewstown maiden in July last year. Hasn't been seen to best effect all 3 starts in handicaps this season, left in a poor position the way the race unfolded when seventh of 8 at Killarney (1m, good) 10 weeks ago (visored). Handicapper given her a chance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 12/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR - · 7f47y Sft 12512/06C8C8 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f211y Goo 1251 @ Leopardstown 24/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f57y Goo 12824/071BHA88 @ Roscommon 01/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 88 · 7f94y Sft 125 · below its mark01/09/2025 · OR 88 parBHA87 @ Listowel 23/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 87 · 1m Hvy 135 · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 87 par23/0987OR 87BHA84 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 84 · 7f Sft 128 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 84 parBHA82 @ Leopardstown 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 82 · 1m1f Sft 140 · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 82 par4/0682OR 82BHA81 @ Killarney 13/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 81 · 1m20y Gd 141 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 81 par13/0781OR 81projClass-projected finish: 15th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-13KillarneyBHA817th7th0
2026-06-04LeopardstownBHA824th4th0
2026-03-22NaasBHA844th4th0
2025-09-23ListowelBHA875th5th0
2025-09-01RoscommonBHA882nd2nd0
2025-07-24Leopardstown15th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/061/094/0613/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 10-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20257th12/137%63%+0.26
03/07/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
24/07/20255th14/126%0%-0.26
01/09/20252nd11/271%86%+0.15
23/09/20255th4/179%0%-0.79
22/03/20264th28/10%75%+0.75
04/06/20264th9/276%50%-0.26
13/07/20267th9/153%14%-0.38