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3

Resurgence

3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 81

Listowel · Liam & Joan Healy Memorial Handicap · 1m 1f

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

41%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising when reaching the frame in maidens at the end of last summer and backed up those 12 months on when second of 13 in maiden at Navan (1m, good) just under 3 weeks ago. Upped further in trip and can progress again now handicapping.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 23/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 13323/08C8C8 @ Punchestown 16/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m30y Goo 13316/09C8C8 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m20y Goo 1342/09C8projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 17
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Navan?2nd2nd0
2025-09-16Punchestown?4th4th0
2025-08-23Curragh?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0816/092/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength73%

Delivery trend -13.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20252nd11/142%92%+0.50
16/09/20254th11/486%67%-0.19
02/09/20262nd6/168%92%+0.23