14
Unterberg
7yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 70
Listowel · Liam & Joan Healy Memorial Handicap · 1m 1f
#18
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Curragh | BHA73 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA75 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | BHA78 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Roscommon | BHA79 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Lingfield | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dundalk | BHA84 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 14-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength3%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 69% | +0.17 |
| 13/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/04/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 15% | -0.21 |
| 30/06/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 16/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 01/08/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 16/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |