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8

Canon Law

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65

Listowel · Kevin's Bar, Listowel/Exchange Inn, Ballybunion Handicap · 1m 4f

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner at Sligo in August and showed further improvement when narrowly beaten by Coulstys Way in handicap at Galway. Up another 12 lb in the weights now, though, and further progress needed if he's to feature.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA45 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 45 · 7f Hvy 123 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 45 par20/1045OR 45BHA44 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 44 · 1m1f120y Yie 124 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 44 parBHA43 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 43 · 1m1f163y Yie 123 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 43 par22/0643OR 43BHA42 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 42 · 1m2f194y Goo 122 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 42 parBHA41 @ Killarney 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 41 · 1m3f73y Gd 121 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 41 par13/0741OR 41BHA43 @ Cork 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 43 · 1m4f GF 123 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 43 parBHA43 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 43 · 1m5f56y Yie 119 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 43 par5/0843OR 43BHA55 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 55 · 1m4f17y Goo 138 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 55 parBHA53 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 53 · 1m4f Sft 119 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 53 par8/0953OR 53projClass-projected finish: 1st of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08GalwayBHA532nd2nd0
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA556th6th0
2026-08-05SligoBHA431st1st0
2026-07-24CorkBHA435th5th0
2026-07-13KillarneyBHA412nd2nd0
2026-07-04NaasBHA426th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/104/075/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1888% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength78%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20255th25/10%71%+0.71
01/06/202612th28/10%0%0.00
22/06/20266th33/10%62%+0.62
04/07/20266th25/10%67%+0.67
13/07/20262nd14/126%92%+0.66
24/07/20265th7/163%64%+0.00
05/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
31/08/20266th6/168%67%-0.02
08/09/20262nd6/168%93%+0.24