16
Cascade Canyon
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 58
Listowel · Kevin's Bar, Listowel/Exchange Inn, Ballybunion Handicap · 1m 4f
#16
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class: BHA60
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | BHA60 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sligo | BHA61 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Limerick | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA68 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 12-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 25/04/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/06/2026 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.08 |
| 19/06/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.22 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 27/08/2026 | 15th | 18/1 | 5% | 18% | +0.12 |