9
Espritroyale
3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 64
Listowel · Kevin's Bar, Listowel/Exchange Inn, Ballybunion Handicap · 1m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Killarney | BHA65 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA65 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA63 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Down Royal | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | BHA70 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Curragh | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1871% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2025 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 26/07/2025 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 58% | +0.43 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 21/08/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |