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15

Henry Hudson

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 62

Listowel · Kevin's Bar, Listowel/Exchange Inn, Ballybunion Handicap · 1m 4f

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Brought along gradually in a trio of maidens but failed to make an impact in a claimer last time and has a bit to prove now handicapping and upped further in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m31y Goo 13412/05C8C8 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 7f Std 13426/05C8C8 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 1m Goo 13410/06C8C7 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m2f Goo 140 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 67 par8/07C7OR 67projClass-projected finish: 5th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-08Fairyhouse?4th4th0
2026-06-10Limerick?4th4th0
2026-05-26Dundalk?5th5th0
2026-05-12Killarney?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0526/0510/068/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1841% of fieldRange 3-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength19%

Delivery trend -7.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/05/20267th50/10%25%+0.25
26/05/20265th80/10%60%+0.60
10/06/20264th50/10%75%+0.75
08/07/20264th6/168%63%-0.06