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3

Jp's Express

3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 68

Listowel · Kevin's Bar, Listowel/Exchange Inn, Ballybunion Handicap · 1m 4f

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 8.5f handicap in July and turned in best effort since when 3¾ lengths third of 14 to Aquilla Star over same C&D 13 days ago. Shaped as if worth a try over further that day but this represents quite a marked step up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: BHA64
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 12/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 7f Std 12612/11C8C8 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 7f Sft 134BHA74 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 74 · 5f205y Gd 124 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 74 par9/0574OR 74BHA67 @ Leopardstown 04/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 67 · 1m Sft 137 · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 67 parBHA64 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 64 · 1m160y Goo 134 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 64 par1/0764OR 64BHA64 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 64 · 1m98y Yie 134 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 64 parBHA64 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 64 · 1m73y Yie 131 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 64 par2/0864OR 64C7 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 70 · 1m Goo 135 · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 70 parBHA68 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 68 · 1m98y Sft 138 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 68 par8/0968OR 68projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08GalwayBHA683rd3rd0
2026-08-12Gowran Park?6th6th0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA645th5th0
2026-07-31GalwayBHA641st1st0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA643rd3rd0
2026-06-04LeopardstownBHA6711th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/114/062/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1876% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength81%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/11/20256th11/142%62%+0.19
22/04/20266th50/10%17%+0.17
09/05/202613th50/10%8%+0.08
04/06/202611th50/10%17%+0.17
01/07/20263rd33/10%85%+0.85
31/07/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
02/08/20265th7/282%60%-0.22
12/08/20266th15/261%64%+0.04
08/09/20263rd12/137%85%+0.48