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11

Love Orchid

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 64

Listowel · Kevin's Bar, Listowel/Exchange Inn, Ballybunion Handicap · 1m 4f

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has improved since stepping up in trip last 2 starts, chasing home A Pretty Penny in 1½m event at Tramore before taking another step forward when ¼ lengths third of 18 to Sunrush in 1¾m event at Navan on latest. One to take seriously.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 26/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 7f Gd 12626/07C8C8 @ Dundalk 15/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 6f Std 126BHA71 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 71 · 1m Sft 129 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 71 par4/0471OR 71BHA70 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 70 · 7f111y Gd 138 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 70 parBHA65 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 65 · 1m160y Goo 135 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 65 par1/0765OR 65C7 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 63 · 1m40y Gd 133 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 63 parBHA63 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 63 · 1m98y Yie 133 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 63 par31/0763OR 63BHA63 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 63 · 1m4f Goo 135 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 63 parBHA65 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 65 · 1m6f Goo 135 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 65 par27/0865OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27NavanBHA653rd3rd0
2026-08-15TramoreBHA632nd2nd0
2026-07-31GalwayBHA6311th11th0
2026-07-15Killarney?4th4th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA656th6th0
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA709th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0711/0531/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength89%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20256th8/158%67%+0.09
15/08/20254th20/10%63%+0.63
04/04/20265th33/10%50%+0.50
11/05/20269th12/137%33%-0.04
01/07/20266th11/142%62%+0.19
15/07/20264th11/271%77%+0.06
31/07/202611th16/116%41%+0.25
15/08/20262nd14/126%86%+0.59
27/08/20263rd15/261%88%+0.28