IvyArcIvyArc
13

Nottooshabby

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 63

Listowel · Kevin's Bar, Listowel/Exchange Inn, Ballybunion Handicap · 1m 4f

#14

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Brought along with handicaps in mind in maidens, catching the eye on more than one occasion. Remains open to improvement now making handicap bow but marked step in trip is a complete unknown and not an obvious move on pedigree.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m50y Gd 13411/07C8C8 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f Goo 1346/08C8C8 @ Leopardstown 20/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m Goo 13420/08C8C8 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR - · 1m Goo 1349/09C8projClass-projected finish: 6th of 17
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Cork?6th6th0
2026-08-20Leopardstown?6th6th0
2026-08-06Leopardstown?7th7th0
2026-07-11Limerick?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/076/0820/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +26.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/07/20266th16/116%0%-0.16
06/08/20267th250/10%54%+0.54
20/08/20266th125/10%58%+0.58
09/09/20266th50/10%71%+0.71