14
Parish Team
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 63
Listowel · Kevin's Bar, Listowel/Exchange Inn, Ballybunion Handicap · 1m 4f
#15
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 9.4)
Highest class: BHA70
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | BHA70 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Naas | BHA70 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Leopardstown | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 8-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 06/08/2026 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 23/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/08/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |