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6

Rodeo Blues

3yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 67

Listowel · Kevin's Bar, Listowel/Exchange Inn, Ballybunion Handicap · 1m 4f

#11

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Blue Point filly who was always holding on when landing a double at Naas (11f) in early-June. Has shaped as if still in form without threatening to add to those successes in 2 starts since and tendency to hang left under pressure is an increasing concern.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 12/04/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR - · 1m Goo 12912/04C8C8 @ Gowran Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 7f Goo 129C8 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 1m Goo 1299/05C8BHA50 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m1f120y Yie 130 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 50 parBHA49 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 49 · 1m1f Sft 119 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 49 par11/0649OR 49BHA47 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 47 · 1m1f163y Yie 127 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 47 parBHA59 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 59 · 1m2f194y Goo 139 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 59 par4/0759OR 59BHA68 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 68 · 1m4f Yie 127 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 68 parBHA69 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 69 · 1m4f Goo 141 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 69 par15/0869OR 69projClass-projected finish: 4th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15TramoreBHA695th5th0
2026-07-30GalwayBHA685th5th0
2026-07-04NaasBHA591st1st0
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA471st1st0
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA496th6th0
2026-06-01Gowran ParkBHA504th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/041/064/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 8-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/04/202615th25/10%0%0.00
05/05/20269th50/10%27%+0.27
09/05/202612th50/10%8%+0.08
01/06/20264th6/168%73%+0.04
11/06/20266th5/174%69%-0.05
22/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
04/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
30/07/20265th5/287%75%-0.12
15/08/20265th7/491%43%-0.48