2
Theorist
3yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 69
Listowel · Kevin's Bar, Listowel/Exchange Inn, Ballybunion Handicap · 1m 4f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Cork | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1829% of fieldRange 11-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -11.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 05/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |
| 24/04/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 47% | +0.10 |
| 23/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |