16
Ephesus
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 75
Listowel · John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 1m 4f
#14
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Gowran Park | BHA76 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA79 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA79 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Limerick | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1725% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 26/11/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 29/12/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 30/06/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 29/07/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 12/08/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |