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13

Handani

3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84

Listowel · John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 1m 4f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

88%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

From an excellent family and confirmed previous promise in maiden when getting off the mark at the fourth attempt in 21-runner 1¼m event at Navan 16 days ago. Makes handicap debut off potentially lenient mark and step up in trip should suit so lots to recommend.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m Yie 13311/10C8C8 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 1m1f Goo 1346/08C8C8 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 13422/08C8C8 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 21 · OR 84 · 1m2f10y Gd 134 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 84 par5/09C8OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Navan?1st1st0
2026-08-22Curragh?3rd3rd0
2026-08-06Leopardstown?2nd2nd0
2025-10-11Naas?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/106/0822/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1788% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -24.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20252nd33/10%86%+0.86
06/08/20262nd7/282%92%+0.11
22/08/20263rd5/287%82%-0.05
05/09/20261st13/891%100%+0.09