3
Narlita
7yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 84
Listowel · John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 1m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Galway | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA81 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA82 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | BHA83 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | BHA82 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA82 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1775% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength62%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 20/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.33 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 31/07/2026 | 17th | 33/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |