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Obscenity

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 84

Listowel · John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 1m 4f

#13

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner this year, including when landing 16-runner handicap at Gowran in June by 1¾ lengths from Beauparc. Bounced back from poor effort when 5¼ lengths fourth of 8 to Fixation back at that course last time but more needed if he's to get back to winning ways here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: BHA64
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Down Royal 29/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 7f26y Yie 13429/09C8BHA65 @ Killarney 06/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 65 · 1m30y Sft 135 · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 65 parBHA64 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 25 · OR 64 · 1m2f Hvy 130 · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 64 par21/1064OR 64BHA66 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 66 · 1m3f90y Sft 136 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 66 parBHA65 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 23 · OR 65 · 1m2f40y Goo 135 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 65 par25/0465OR 65BHA77 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 77 · 1m4f17y Yie 137 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 77 parBHA78 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 78 · 1m4f40y Yie 138 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 78 par1/0678OR 78BHA87 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 87 · 1m4f Gd 128 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 87 parBHA86 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 86 · 1m4f100y GF 126 · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 86 par12/0886OR 86projClass-projected finish: 9th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Gowran ParkBHA864th4th0
2026-06-28CurraghBHA8712th12th0
2026-06-01Gowran ParkBHA781st1st0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA772nd2nd0
2026-04-25NavanBHA651st1st0
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA663rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0911/041/0612/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1719% of fieldRange 12-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -10.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/09/20258th125/10%46%+0.46
06/10/20255th40/10%60%+0.60
21/10/20254th9/276%88%+0.11
11/04/20263rd7/491%82%-0.09
25/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
18/05/20262nd11/1094%90%-0.04
01/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
28/06/202612th10/382%8%-0.74
12/08/20264th4/179%57%-0.22