14
Royal Saxo
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 77
Listowel · John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 1m 4f
#17
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA79 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ballinrobe | BHA81 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Down Royal | BHA84 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA85 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-12 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 176% of fieldRange 5-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/03/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 28/04/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.78 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 10/06/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/06/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |