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15

Sir Jeremy

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 75

Listowel · John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 1m 4f

#12

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#12

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Responded well to headgear when recording a second win for this yard at Galway in August, doing well to get up having been ridden patiently upped in trip. Ran creditably when 1¾ lengths fifth of 10 to Gaoth Chuil at Killarney last time and good-value 7 lb claimer booked.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA73 @ Galway 03/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 73 · 1m73y Sft 133 · below its mark03/08/2025 · OR 73 par3/0873OR 73BHA73 @ Gowran Park 02/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 73 · 7f Goo 133 · below its mark02/09/2025 · OR 73 parBHA71 @ Galway 09/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 71 · 1m98y Sft 141 · below its mark09/09/2025 · OR 71 par9/0971OR 71BHA69 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 69 · 1m Sft 129 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 69 parBHA68 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 68 · 1m2f63y Yie 128 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 68 par18/0568OR 68BHA73 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 73 · 1m1f100y Yie 143 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 73 parBHA73 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 73 · 1m2f63y Goo 133 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 73 par30/0673OR 73BHA72 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 72 · 1m3f180y Yie 132 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 72 parBHA77 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 77 · 1m6f80y Gd 121 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 77 par21/0877OR 77projClass-projected finish: 4th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21KillarneyBHA775th5th0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA721st1st0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA735th5th0
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA739th9th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA681st1st0
2026-03-28CurraghBHA697th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0828/0330/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1750% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength62%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/20254th22/10%73%+0.73
02/09/20256th5/174%50%-0.24
09/09/202512th8/158%21%-0.36
28/03/20267th11/142%54%+0.12
18/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
12/06/20269th9/153%43%-0.10
30/06/20265th17/255%67%+0.11
01/08/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
21/08/20265th9/153%56%+0.03