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5

Star Harbour

8yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 84

Listowel · John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 1m 4f

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has run 27 times since last win in 2024 but has found only one too good on 3 occasions this year, chasing home Touch The Moon at Dundalk in August on third occasion. Ran only respectably back on turf last time, though, and others make more appeal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA88 @ Cork 03/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 88 · 1m4f30y Sft 128 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 88 par3/0588OR 88BHA87 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 87 · 1m4f Gd 147 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 86 · 1m3f39y Goo 123 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 86 par30/052OR 86BHA88 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 88 · 1m4f Gd 129 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 88 · 1m4f10y Goo 136 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 88 par18/073OR 88BHA86 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m4f100y GF 126 · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 86 parBHA90 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 90 · 1m2f150y Std 135 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 90 par15/0890OR 90BHA86 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 19 · OR 86 · 1m4f Yie 168 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 86 parBHA85 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 21 · OR 85 · 1m5f Gd 122 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 85 par12/0985OR 85projClass-projected finish: 5th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12LeopardstownBHA8512th12th0
2026-08-29CurraghBHA863rd3rd0
2026-08-15DundalkBHA902nd2nd0
2026-08-12Gowran ParkBHA862nd2nd0
2026-07-18Ripon35th5th0
2026-06-28CurraghBHA885th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0528/0615/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1781% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/202614th9/153%7%-0.45
15/05/20264th7/163%67%+0.04
30/05/20262nd28/10%91%+0.91
28/06/20265th14/126%67%+0.40
18/07/20265th6/168%33%-0.35
12/08/20262nd15/261%86%+0.25
15/08/20262nd11/271%92%+0.21
29/08/20263rd5/287%89%+0.02
12/09/202612th33/10%45%+0.45