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11

Superficial

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 79

Listowel · John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 1m 4f

#16

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Posted a career-best effort when getting off the mark in decisive style at Roscommon in May. Below form both outings in this sphere since, though, and may need to come back down the weights before becoming of interest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA67 @ Listowel 22/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 67 · 1m3f15y Hvy 137 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 67 par22/0967OR 67C0 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m46y Goo 152C8 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 2m Sft 15413/12C8BHA68 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 68 · 1m3f90y Sft 138 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 68 parBHA74 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 74 · 1m4f183y Goo 134 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 74 par8/0574OR 74BHA74 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 74 · 1m4f17y Yie 134 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 22 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 1616/06C8BHA80 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 80 · 1m3f180y Yie 140 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 80 parBHA80 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 80 · 1m4f17y Goo 140 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 80 par31/0880OR 80projClass-projected finish: 17th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA8014th14th0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA8012th12th0
2026-06-06Punchestown?10th10th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA741st1st0
2026-05-08BallinrobeBHA746th6th0
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA682nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0911/046/0631/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 170% of fieldRange 13-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 17th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20253rd9/153%83%+0.31
14/10/20257th7/163%14%-0.49
13/12/20258th25/10%36%+0.36
11/04/20262nd10/147%91%+0.44
08/05/20266th5/174%62%-0.12
18/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
06/06/202610th4/179%57%-0.22
01/08/202612th6/168%27%-0.42
31/08/202614th33/10%7%+0.07