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8yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 96
Listowel · John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 1m 4f
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | BHA98 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA100 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | BHA97 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Clonmel | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Curragh | BHA99 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Leopardstown | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1744% of fieldRange 2-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2024 | 24th | 10/1 | 47% | 23% | -0.24 |
| 01/07/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 07/08/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/09/2025 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 31/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 53% | +0.16 |
| 12/09/2026 | 17th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |