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6

Tribal Star

5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 83

Listowel · John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 1m 4f

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has produced some creditable efforts in defeat in some good staying races this season, better placed than most when 4 lengths fourth of 10 to Pole Star at Chester last time. Losing run is building but remains on a good mark and more than capable of being in the mix if on a going day.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA91 @ Dundalk 27/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 91 · 1m2f150y Std 132 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 91 par27/0291OR 912 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 91 · 2m56y Std 127 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 86 · 2m2f140y Goo 136 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 86 par8/052OR 86BHA88 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 88 · 1m6f Yie 122 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 90 · 2m56y Sta 125 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 90 par27/062OR 90BHA88 @ Killarney 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 88 · 2m185y Gd 140 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 88 parBHA88 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 88 · 1m4f Yie 128 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 88 par31/0788OR 88BHA87 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 87 · 1m2f150y Std 132 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 84 · 1m7f196y Sft 122 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 84 par12/092OR 84projClass-projected finish: 11th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester24th4th0
2026-08-15DundalkBHA8712th12th0
2026-07-31GalwayBHA8810th10th0
2026-07-14KillarneyBHA882nd2nd0
2026-06-27Newcastle211th11th0
2026-06-03CurraghBHA889th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/023/0631/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1763% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength56%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/02/20264th5/174%50%-0.24
03/04/20264th9/153%73%+0.20
08/05/20263rd14/126%88%+0.61
03/06/20269th16/116%27%+0.11
27/06/202611th25/10%47%+0.47
14/07/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
31/07/202610th28/10%47%+0.47
15/08/202612th7/163%15%-0.48
12/09/20264th9/153%67%+0.14