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4

Ballybawn Belter

8yo Mare · 9-10

Listowel · Eric Browne Memorial Maiden · 1m 4f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful hurdler/chaser who made an encouraging start on the Flat when second of 13 in maiden at Gowran (1¾m, good to soft). Open to improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼4
Strength99%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +3.9
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA120 @ Leopardstown 29/12/2024 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 120 · 3m100y Goo 156 · below its mark29/12/2024 · OR 120 par29/12120OR 120BHA120 @ Gowran Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 120 · 2m4f Yie 159 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 120 parBHA122 @ Galway 26/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 122 · 2m6f111y Yie 148 · below its mark26/10/2025 · OR 122 par26/10122OR 1221 @ Navan 16/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 124 · 3m Hvy 140 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 124 par1 @ Limerick 28/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 124 · 2m3f100y Sft 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/12/2025 · OR 124 par28/121OR 1241 @ Leopardstown 01/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 23 · OR 131 · 2m5f107y Sft 145 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/02/2026 · OR 131 par1 @ Leopardstown 02/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 130 · 2m5f120y Yie 146 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/03/2026 · OR 130 par2/031OR 1301 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 130 · 2m5f45y Yie 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 130 parC8 @ Gowran Park 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m6f Yie 1301/09C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Gowran Park?2nd2nd0
2026-07-31GalwayBHA128−5
2026-04-04Fairyhouse13rd-5th+7
2026-03-02Leopardstown16th-2th+7
2026-02-01Leopardstown17th-1th+7
2025-12-28Limerick11st-7th+7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1216/112/031/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/12/20244th6/168%81%+0.13
04/10/20252nd12/137%88%+0.51
26/10/20252nd5/174%88%+0.14
16/11/20256th12/137%72%+0.35
28/12/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
01/02/20267th12/137%73%+0.36
02/03/20266th5/174%67%-0.07
04/04/20263rd13/266%78%+0.12
01/09/20262nd28/10%92%+0.92