5
Galileo Springs
6yo Mare · 9-10
Listowel · Eric Browne Memorial Maiden · 1m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Tramore | BHA102 | −2 | ||
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Punchestown | BHA102 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Killarney | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Downpatrick | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2024 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 90% | +0.85 |
| 14/12/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 13/01/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 07/07/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 15/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 31/07/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |